As OpenAI moves deeper into online shopping with its new Instant Checkout feature, retailers are facing a major shift in how their products get discovered. It’s no longer just about price, ads, and reviews. Now, supply chain performance itself plays a direct role in whether a product even shows up in AI-powered search results.

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According to new research from Gartner, OpenAI evaluates products using several fulfillment-related signals that go far beyond traditional e-commerce rankings. These include real-time availability, date-certain delivery promises, shipping cost, return rates, and overall fulfillment execution. Reviews and product popularity still matter, but operational data now has equal weight in determining which items rise to the top.

A major difference Gartner analyst Chap Achen notes is that OpenAI’s ranking system works at the individual item level, not at the order or basket level that most retailers use today. Many retailers still base free shipping and delivery promises on the total value of a shopper’s cart, not on the specific characteristics of each SKU. That approach, Gartner argues, is unworkable in agent-driven commerce. If a product doesn’t carry its own precise delivery date, shipping cost, or availability data, it simply won’t rank as well as items that do.

This gap shows up clearly in current fulfillment practices. Gartner reports that 87% of U.S. fashion retailers design free shipping around order value, not around the item being purchased. Meanwhile, 63% of apparel retailers still use broad shipping windows instead of exact dates. OpenAI’s model, however, favors items that can present specific delivery commitments and item-level fulfillment signals.

The shift also puts pressure on execution. Single-item orders, which are common in AI-driven shopping, carry higher fulfillment costs. And because OpenAI factors return rates and fulfillment accuracy into its rankings, late shipments or frequent returns can reduce a product’s visibility, even when pricing is competitive.

Why this matters becomes clearer when looking at adoption trends. While only 11% of consumers currently use generative AI for shopping, 44% say they are open to it. By 2030, Gartner predicts that 20% of all digital commerce transactions could be handled by GenAI platforms or AI agents, creating a meaningful new discovery channel for retailers.