Blank sailings on major U.S. trade lanes have fallen to their lowest level in more than a year, even as trade between the U.S. and China remains under pressure.
That’s according to new February 2026 tariff data from project44, which analyzed global shipping volumes and carrier schedules.
Blank sailings peaked in April 2025, shortly after sweeping new tariffs were rolled out. That month, carriers canceled 131 sailings across major U.S. routes, including Asia–U.S., China–U.S., and U.S.–China lanes.
By January 2026, that number had dropped to just 11. The sharp decline suggests carriers have adjusted capacity to match lower trade volumes and shifting demand.
Imports from China continue to slide
While sailing schedules have stabilized, trade volumes have not.
According to project44’s data, U.S. imports from China declined by 29% in 2025 compared with 2024. The slowdown accelerated in January 2026, when volumes were down 35% year over year.
The drop came during what is typically a busy period ahead of the Lunar New Year, when companies usually bring in extra inventory before factories in China shut down.
Exports tell a similar story. U.S. shipments to China declined by 37% in 2025 compared with 2024. December showed a brief rebound, with exports up 14% year over year, but January 2026 volumes were down 20%.
Despite some easing of tariffs in recent months, the broader trade relationship remains strained.
Southeast Asia gains ground
As imports from China decline, sourcing continues to shift toward Southeast Asia.
In 2025, U.S. imports from Thailand increased by 30% relative to 2024. Imports from Indonesia climbed 34%. That momentum continued in January 2026, with Thailand up 14% and Indonesia up 35% year over year.
Indonesia, in particular, is emerging as a key alternative supplier as companies diversify away from China.
A new normal, for now
project44’s data suggests carriers have adapted to lower trade volumes by reducing blank sailings and stabilizing schedules.
But the larger tariff environment remains unsettled, with legal challenges and ongoing negotiations still in play.
For now, shipping lines appear to have found a new rhythm. Whether it holds up will depend on how trade policy evolves in the months ahead.
