Peak season used to feel like a mad dash, but DHL says the holidays don’t bring the same sense of chaos they once did. Thanks to years of planning, better forecasting, and rapid growth in robotics, the company is heading into the busiest stretch of the year with confidence instead of panic.

What’s Related

Kraig Foreman, who has spent nearly three decades at DHL and leads the company’s e-commerce solutions business, says the shift is clear. Retailers and logistics providers simply operate differently today.

“It’s not as much of an emotional roller coaster as it once was,” he said.

Foreman said the biggest change is the maturity of planning. Retailers now use better forecasting tools, understand promo timing more precisely, and prepare inventory earlier. That gives DHL a clearer picture of what’s coming. At the same time, DHL begins preparing for peak in January, with dedicated teams focused on staffing plans, equipment needs, analytics, and robotics.

That year-round prep also explains why peak season has stretched beyond Black Friday. Many brands are now using early sales to skim some volume off the traditional holiday surge. Consumers still concentrate most of their buying on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but the early start helps ease some of the pressure.

The power of flexible robotics

One of the biggest differences from a decade ago is how DHL handles its volume swings. Instead of relying on fixed conveyors or sortation equipment, the company now leans heavily on flexible robotics.

“Once you bolt conveyors down, they’re kind of there, whether you need them or not,” Foreman said. Robots solve that problem. DHL brings in additional robotic equipment specifically for peak and returns it when volumes fall, giving the company the ability to flex capacity up and down quickly.

Seasonal workers also get up to speed faster with robotics, which reduces training time during the busiest part of the year. Most of DHL’s e-commerce peak operations now use some form of automation, a major shift from just five years ag

That move toward automation mirrors what’s happening in the LTL sector, where carriers are seeing digital tools reshape their networks. Ali Faghri, Chief Strategy Officer at XPO, recently noted how AI is playing a growing role in managing capacity and productivity. “Our AI-powered models are improving how freight flows through our network by reducing diversions and empty miles,” he said.

The impact of tariffs 

Tariffs continue to dominate headlines, but Foreman said they haven’t changed the number of packages moving through DHL’s network. Instead, they’ve changed what customers spend.

“Our volume is the same, but the value of goods going out the door is higher,” he said. Some retailers raised prices, others changed discount levels, and others absorbed the cost, but when aggregated across DHL’s network, average basket values have climbed.

Faghri said tariffs could also shape future freight patterns, especially if manufacturers shift more production closer to home. “Tariffs should be a long-term tailwind for the LTL market as more manufacturers will shift production to the U.S.,” he said.

Finding a rhythm

Foreman described supply chains as a rhythm that gets knocked out of sync by major events. The key now, he said, is how quickly companies restore it. “As soon as you disrupt that rhythm, you need to find a way to get a defibrillator back on it,” he said.

He believes the industry has done that heading into this year’s peak. Volumes look similar to last year, planning has been steady, and DHL is fully staffed and equipped.

“Our confidence in execution is very high,” he said.