Retail sales increased in March after two straight monthly declines. Still, the growth was likely driven by consumers rushing to buy goods before new tariffs took effect, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions.
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.6% month over month and 4.75% year over year in March. Core retail sales, which also exclude restaurants, rose 0.4% month over month and 5.07% year over year.
The gains came before President Trump announced on April 2 a new 10% baseline tariff on all imports and “reciprocal” tariffs targeting dozens of countries. Some consumers, anticipating higher prices, began stocking up in early March. A survey conducted for the National Retail Federation found that 46% of shoppers said they were buying items like appliances and clothing ahead of potential price hikes.
“Retail sales increased in March but only moderately, and the spending came before the president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “A major factor appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs.”
For procurement and supply chain leaders, this behavior reflects growing demand volatility. As consumers shift purchasing forward to avoid cost increases, companies may face uneven ordering patterns, short-term inventory surges, and downstream fulfillment challenges.
Sales were up in five of nine tracked sectors month over month. Digital products led the way, up 0.79% month over month and a striking 27.62% year over year. General merchandise rose 0.48%, while clothing and accessories were up 0.76%. Electronics and appliance stores declined 0.29% month over month but grew 5.94% year over year.
The report, based on anonymized credit and debit card data, offers a faster, more responsive view than traditional government reports. With additional tariffs on China already in place and broader trade uncertainty looming, March’s sales data could mark the start of a broader shift in consumer behavior, and a warning sign for those managing sourcing and demand planning.
