Nearly two weeks after the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, supply chains are still sorting through what it actually means. While some see temporary cost relief, most say uncertainty remains the defining theme. We asked four industry leaders what has changed, what hasn’t, and what to watch next: Brian Cupp, VP of Operations and Strategic Initiatives at IntelliTrans; Karl Fillhouer, VP of Sales and Operations at Circle Logistics; John Lash, Group VP of Product Strategy at e2open; and Don Mabry, SVP of Global Trade Solutions at Infios.

What’s Related

Supply Chain 24/7: One week after the Supreme Court ruling, what concrete changes are you seeing in sourcing, freight bookings, or trade activity?

Brian Cupp: We are still early. It will likely take many months and further court battles until we see any significant sourcing reversals or structural network changes. Most companies are holding existing supply chain configurations in place while they assess the broader trade policy direction. What we are seeing is a cautious posture. Teams are reviewing inventory positions and carrier commitments rather than making immediate shifts in booking patterns. The market is in observation mode more than execution mode at this stage.

Karl Fillhouer: No changes in activity yet.

John Lash: Not much, yet. So far, the data reveal essentially no change in freight bookings for trade with the US since the ruling (keep in mind that the Supreme Court ruling occurred right after the start of the Chinese New Year, so it will be a while before the data reflects a change in imports from China). Granted, it’s a small sample size when comparing booking volume for the days since the February 20 ruling to the prior period, but the change is statistically insignificant. I expect this will change as orders move through the supply chain, especially for standard items with shorter lead times. Companies have been granted a window of tariff relief, where goods imported from certain countries are now taxed at a lower rate. In the case of Brazil and China, we’re talking about a double-digit drop in duty rates. That’s a sizeable savings. Think of this as a windfall back-to-school sales tax holiday for businesses. The big difference is that we don’t know how long it will last, so act fast and get in your orders before the rules change.

Don Mabry: There’s some immediate margin relief for import-heavy supply chains, and a few are exploring refund opportunities. But it’s not a wholesale shift; most are holding off on major sourcing or freight changes until the policy dust settles, especially with the increased global uncertainty introduced by heightened hostilities in the Middle East.  

Supply Chain 24/7: Does this ruling meaningfully reduce cost pressure for supply chains, or does it mainly add another layer of uncertainty?

Karl Fillhouer: There’s definitely temporary relief and some cost reductions; however, with the current administration threatening additional tariffs not through IEEPA, there is additional chaos to contend with. Until the ‘tariff’ subject is nailed down and stable, whether with new tariffs or no new tariffs, the market will remain uncertain. It’s that uncertainty that drives the chaos, which in turn has a negative effect on market growth. 

John Lash: Overall, it adds more uncertainty to an uncertain global supply chain. On the same day the Supreme Court invalidated tariffs under IEEPA, the administration announced an alternative duty of 10% under Section 122, revised it to 15% within 24 hours, and said they were considering further actions. The tariff that actually went into effect on February 24 was Section 122, a temporary surcharge imposing a 10% ad valorem duty on all imported articles from every country. A surcharge that expires in 150 days. What’s actually going to happen between now and the end of July is anyone’s guess, but it won’t be a straight line. Don’t look at this Section 122 action as any indication of the final state, but rather a signal from the administration that tariffs are not going away as a favored US policy tool. The message is “buckle up, more to come”. But just what will come, when, for which goods, and how much is in the air. Long story short, this means more uncertainty for American businesses and consumers.

Don Mabry: The Supreme Court ruling may temporarily relieve supply chains of some cost pressure, especially those hit hardest by the broad IEEPA tariffs, but it’s far from a silver bullet. While companies may see short-term margin relief and possibly refund opportunities, there’s still a lot of uncertainty with other trade authorities and the potential for new policy moves. In this environment, risk hasn’t disappeared; it has just shifted. The companies that win won’t just react to tariff changes — they’ll operationalize them in real time across compliance, finance, and sourcing. 

Brian Cupp: The ruling may ease some direct tariff exposure, and the $170+ billion in potential refunds could provide working capital relief. However, that does not automatically relieve cost pressure in the system, and companies remain cautious about how they commit capital and inventory. Many companies spent the past 18 months building nearshoring relationships in Central America and North Africa, and those investments are not going to be unwound quickly. That leaves supply chains operating with hybrid networks that are often more complex and more expensive than pre-tariff models. At the same time, the administration has already imposed a new 10% global tariff to replace those struck down by the Supreme Court, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile supply chain.  

Supply Chain 24/7: If there is a financial impact, where do you expect it to appear first: in freight rates, supplier pricing, inventory decisions, or consumer prices?

John Lash: For many companies, the most significant financial impact will be the immediate shift in duties. While tariffs on some imports will increase, others will decrease. When you’re talking about double-digit reductions in tariff rates, that’s a huge bottom-line savings opportunity for American businesses. This will lead to higher inventories. Next up is freight rates, then warehousing. A takeaway from the 2025 trade war is how big swings in tariff policy warp buying behavior and whipsaw supply chains. Remember the 145% tariffs on goods from China? As everyone rushed to get goods onshore before a higher rate took effect, transportation capacity tightened, and rates spiked. When new duties came into effect, demand for China-US lanes collapsed overnight. It was like turning off the spigot. The same dynamics in transportation and warehousing will play out again, just not as pronounced, since we’re not talking about a triple-digit change in duty rates (at least not yet). 

Don Mabry: The biggest and fastest financial impact will show up in post-entry recovery and compliance orchestration. That’s where companies can actually recover dollars or risk losing them, depending on how agile their systems are. For most brands, supply chain realignment has been driven as much by geopolitical risk, resilience, persistent duties on steel and aluminum, and long-term policy uncertainty as by tariffs themselves — and those structural forces remain firmly in place. 

Brian Cupp: Any near-term impact is most likely to show up first in freight networks rather than in consumer pricing. If volumes begin to move, pressure typically appears in specific lanes as carriers reposition equipment and capacity tightens, sometimes before broader rate indices reflect it. In those corridors, carriers may begin adjusting quotes or building modest risk premiums ahead of wider market shifts. Supplier pricing and inventory decisions tend to respond more gradually, since those adjustments typically lag changes in transportation markets.

Karl Fillhouer: With mechanisms for tariffs outside of IEEPA at Trump’s disposal, it’s likely we will not see a change in how tariffs are impacting the economy and/or freight rates, supplier pricing, inventory decisions, or consumer prices. There are much larger events that could have a much greater impact on the economy, Iran being one of them from a negative standpoint, in regard to the cost of fuel in the US. From a positive standpoint, further lowering of interest rates would drive economic growth, building construction, and spending. With economic growth and consumer spending come the flow of more goods and services, which will further impact transportation industry capacity. 

Supply Chain 24/7: Looking ahead to the next 30–90 days, what is the biggest risk supply chain leaders should be watching closely?

Don Mabry: Supply chain leaders should be concerned about policy whiplash and adaptability. Regulatory shifts could come fast, and leaders need to be ready to pivot. They should ensure their compliance and recovery processes are nimble and up to date. When tariff rules shift, companies don’t just need visibility – they need systems that can quickly turn regulatory change into real cash recovery and clean, defensible compliance.   

Brian Cupp: The biggest risk is uneven movement in volumes across regions. Even modest import recovery in certain corridors can create localized capacity pressure if carriers shift assets toward higher-margin freight. That makes planning difficult because the pressure is not uniform across the network. Leaders should also keep an eye on how remaining and emerging tariffs continue to affect input costs and industrial supply chains.

Karl Fillhouer: Transportation capacity tightening. When capacity in the transportation sector tightens, there’s a direct effect on rates.

John Lash: From a high-level risk perspective, the situation over the next 30-90 days is not very different from before. Unchanged is the fact that we are in a period where volatile tariff policy is the norm. What has changed is that now we’re at a transition point from one set of tariff mechanisms to another. And with every change comes added uncertainty, making an uncertain time even more uncertain. One thing is for sure: it’s going to be messy.

As a financial risk, watch how refunds of IEEPA tariffs are being managed. Several high-profile lawsuits were immediately filed seeking full refunds. As with most things, the devil is in the details. So far, there are few details about the timing or process of refunds, leading some to believe it will be a slow, arduous, and costly journey. While the large importers have the most money to lose, the stakes can be even higher for small businesses with thin resources and reserves.

Supply Chain 24/7: If you are advising a supply chain executive today, what is one action they should take in the next 30 days to protect their business? 

Brian Cupp: Strengthen relationships with core carriers and preserve optionality in your network. This is not the moment to optimize purely for the lowest cost or assume conditions will remain stable. Companies should review lane-level exposure, revisit inventory posture in higher-risk corridors, and be willing to pay modest premiums to secure flexibility. In an environment where additional tariff measures are being introduced, protecting access to capacity is more important than squeezing the last percentage point out of rates.

Karl Fillhouer: Explore adding a well-run freight/transportation broker that can systematically assist in gaining access to capacity that is generally not reachable. That capacity is made up of thousands of small carriers that are unreachable by shippers. A well-run broker will have the systems, processes,  and vetting standards in place to remove the cost and risks of going it alone.

John Lash: The administration has signaled that more tariffs are on their way. While we’re not quite sure what these will look like, they will almost certainly be higher than today’s rates. So if you haven’t done it already, consider stocking up to get ahead of tariffs. Closely follow the changing landscape and connect policy moves to your supply chain to understand their impact on the business. This way, when something breaks in your favor, you are positioned to act. If you wait until an opportunity presents itself, it’s too late because any opportunity is bound to be short-lived. Think of these as small steps to blunt some of the pain of what’s coming. Those who act fast gain a financial advantage over peers, which might mean the difference between staying in business or filing bankruptcy.

Don Mabry: In this kind of environment, where risk and uncertainty continue unabated, intelligent supply chain execution really matters. Real-time trade compliance, duty optimization, and clear visibility across sourcing are what turn policy change into a real competitive advantage. When rules change, you need systems that can turn new policies into real cash recovery, not just visibility. Invest in tools that can provide this valuable insight in a shifting regulatory landscape.